To Our Investors and Friends,
The S&P 500 increased 4.5% in May as massive monetary and fiscal stimulus continued to push the markets higher despite horrific news on both the COVID-19 and unemployment front. Oil prices (WTI) rebounded a robust 88% to over $35 a barrel as signs of an economic recovery began to appear in China and other parts of the world. The 10-year was little changed from last month, ending at 65 bps, while the spread between the 2- and 10-year ended at 49 bps. Growth stocks continued to lead the market - the Russell 1000 Growth was up 6.7% in the month compared to the more modest 3.4% gain in the Russell 1000 Value. Small cap stocks experienced an even wider disparity, likely indicating a more permanent impact of change on this part of the economy. The Russell 2000 Growth expanded 9.5%, helped by the promise of biotech to solve some of the virus issues, and the Russell 2000 Value rebounded a mere 2.9% as the poor outlook for banks suppressed returns.
We are witnessing an incredible amount of turmoil driven by both the impact of COVID-19, and protests and riots that broke out across the country since the senseless death of George Floyd on May 25th. “I can’t breathe” defines where the country is right now...the inequity among Americans is coming to the forefront and likely will accelerate change. Those that hold onto the past will be relegated to the history books, while those that embrace the future can help shape it for the better.
Over the last decade, equity market fund flows have been dominated by investors pouring their retirement dollars into passive indexes. Investors are wholeheartedly rejecting higher cost mutual funds that have not generated the higher returns required to justify their fees. This occurs at a time when we are witnessing how quickly people can change their behavior. What is not changing quickly is the components of the S&P 500. As can be seen in the chart below, the greatest danger S&P 500 index investors face is stagnation. On April 6, the S&P 500 removed Macy’s (M) from the index. On May 12th, Dexcom (DXCM) was added to the S&P 500 index.
For more information on this chart service, please visit www.williamoneil.com.
If the S&P 500 index was an active manager, it would be fired. Taking time to make changes may have made sense in the past, but this rigidity will prove quite costly in a rapidly evolving economy.
Many speculate that Tesla will be added to the S&P 500 sometime later this year or early next year. Ford and General Motors have long been part of the index. (GM was added back in after it went bankrupt during the financial crisis). Tesla stock is up over 4000% since it went public in 2010. It is no wonder that the S&P 500 has massively lagged every major Russell index over the last 20 years.
We will continue to focus on finding innovative companies that harness the power of technological change that improves people’s lives. We think that this focus on the future should continue to drive positive returns for our investors that likely will continue to exceed the returns of the S&P 500 over time.
All the Best to You,
AKW