A Decade of Growth has Changed the Economy

To Our Investors and Friends,

The S&P 500 increased 2.0% in the month of October, heavily influenced by a handful of mega cap stocks including Apple (+11.1%) and Facebook (+7.6%). This continues a trend that has been in place for the last decade. Oil prices (WTI) remained flat at $54 a barrel. The10-year remained within a fairly tight range, closing 1bp higher for the month to 1.69%, while the spread between the 2 and 10-year widened to a more recent norm of 17 bps. The Russell 1000 Growth continued to lead the market, up 2.8%, driven by large cap tech noted above. The Russell 2000 Growth was up about 2.4% as semis rebounded strongly. The Russell 2000 Value returned a similar 2.4% driven by utilities, REITS, and financials. The Russell 1000 Value rebounded the least, up a less robust 1.4%.

We are struck by how much the economy has changed over the last decade. Since the end of the financial crisis, the youngest companies in the S&P 500, many harnessing the power of intelligent tools of the fourth industrial revolution, have grown from a mere .6% of GDP to over 3%. As indicated in the chart below, more mature companies like Microsoft and Apple (which drove the gains in the market this month), have helped the 26 to 50-year old cohort of companies grow from approximately 5% of GDP to approximately 8% of GDP. Over this same period, companies over 100 years old (many financials and the leaders of the second industrial revolution), are losing their economic relevance within the economy. According to our analysis of S&P 500 members, these companies have seen their contribution to GDP fall from 27% to 22% since the financial crisis.  

We believe that the economic trends that have been in place for the last decade remain firm, and will only expand from here. We believe that the stock market has only begun to recognize the changes brought about by digitization of the economy, and that these young growth companies can become considerably larger. We will continue our efforts to invest in the beneficiaries of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, those companies that we believe can become the country’s next generation blue chip companies. This group can be volatile at times, as has been demonstrated in the last few months, but should drive meaningful returns over time. We welcome you to join us on this journey of discovery.

All the Best to You,

AKW

The Problem with the IPO market

To Our Investors and Friends,

The S&P 500 increased 1.2% in the third quarter, slightly lower than the record high seen in July. Oil prices (WTI) dropped over 7% to $54 a barrel as global growth continues to slow, despite an attack on Saudi oil facilities a few weeks ago. The10-year fell to a quarter low of 1.47%, before rebounding to close the month at 1.68%. In the US, the spread between the 2- and 10-year is a mere 0.05%. This resulted in a predictable continuation of trends in the large cap Russell indexes - the Russell 1000 Growth index increased 1.5%, and compared favorably to the Russell 1000 Value’s 1.4% increase. The small cap space behaved much more unpredictably as this year’s best performing stocks were sold off in September, while the worst performing stocks rebounded strongly. The net result was the Russell 2000 Growth index fell 4.2% in the quarter, while the Russell 2000 Value index fell a more modest 0.5% in the quarter.

September was full of surprises that went well beyond the headlines regarding the escalating China trade war and impending impeachment inquiry. Most notable was the IPO market itself, which went from inviting to hostile very quickly.

Over the last decade, IPO investing has changed from an orderly process of transferring ownership from private hands into public hands to something considerably more chaotic. After the financial crisis, many long-term investors sought better risk adjusted returns through allocating more capital to the private markets. The result was an explosion in money slated to both private equity and venture capital. Traditional pubic investors in IPOs, meanwhile, are dramatically shrinking as assets move from active managers to passive managers. It gets more complicated, because many large active managers exhaust their demand for IPOs by buying shares in the private marketplace before the companies go public.  Passive investment vehicles largely do not invest in new issues for a period of time after the IPO. Who is left? The fast-acting hedge fund community that judges each investment on incredibly short-term criteria.

The changing dynamics of a larger private market transferring ownership to a smaller, more short-term public market can lead to much greater volatility. IPOs now have fluctuating initial offering price ranges, insatiable initial demand, and then massive stock volatility immediately following the offering. The last few weeks have been characterized by IPOs that immediately trade off in the public markets. Peloton (PTON) and Smile Direct Club (SDC) reversed course very quickly once going public. WeWork decided to postpone their IPO as the $47 billion private valuation was whole heartedly rejected by the public markets.

We believe the best way to approach this new world is with caution and patience. There is no reason to rush in when the investor base is so fleeting. A patient, well-informed investor should be able to translate short-term rapid market dislocations into better long-term returns. For those that have a long-term time horizon, we welcome you to join us on this journey.

All the Best to You,

AKW

A Volatile Market is Driven by More than Recession Fears

To Our Investors and Friends,

The S&P 500 fell 1.8% in the month of August, off a record high in July. Oil prices (WTI) dropped 6% to $55 a barrel as global growth slows, and supply remains robust. The most significant change in the markets came from the bond market, where the yield curve continued to fall. The 10-year govt bond dropped to 1.5% from 2.1% one month ago. We believe this is being driven by pressures on rates throughout the globe, driven in part by a slowing economy worldwide. One meaningful example, the German 10-year, dropped to negative .7% from negative .4% a month ago. In the US, the spread between the 2- and 10-year is now essentially 0.0%. This is a very bad scenario for bank profits, but has not caused a lack of credit availability, and therefore may not be a precursor to a recession.  The Russell 1000 Growth index fell 0.8% and the Russell 2000 Growth index fell 4.3% in the month, both continuing to beat the bank heavy Value indexes by approximately 2% and 1% respectively.

Globalization, aging demographics across the world, and a changing economy driven by the introduction of new ways of communicating and transacting are all playing a part in influencing global markets. All markets will eventually reflect the new economic realities driven by these forces. Volatility in markets is being influenced by another major change… technology is reshaping both the participants in markets and how markets are correlated worldwide. 

After the financial crisis, financial institutions began to dramatically reduce their ranks. Algorithms first assisted and then replaced thousands of human traders at an unprecedented rate, and continues at a rapid pace more than 10 years after the financial crisis ended. These new computer programs are vastly simpler than their human counterparts. New information triggers trading to buy or sell underlying assets, with little regard for the longevity of the decision or whether the market already reflects the new information. The end result is rapid one-way directional trading. We have witnessed individual shares move much more dramatically than in the past on less meaningful fundamental information. A single-day 10-20% stock move is now commonly a 20-40% single-day stock move.  As you can imagine, exaggerated moves lead to a less efficient market, and therefore a growing opportunity for long-term investors.

We believe that the best way to approach rapidly vacillating markets is with a long-term approach. A patient, well-informed investor should be able to translate short-term rapid market dislocations into better long-term returns. Our research efforts extend well beyond what is occurring, focusing more on why it is occurring. We believe this should allow us to take advantage of market opportunities while many are simply reacting to the latest tweet.  For those that have a long-term time horizon, we welcome you to join us on this journey.

All the Best to You,

AKW

A Golden Age of Superior Customer Solutions

To Our Investors and Friends,

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high in July, finishing up 1.3% after a sell off on the last day. Oil prices (WTI) remained at the same $58.50 level. The 10-year Treasury Bond moved up modestly 3 bps to 2.04%. The spread between the 2- and 10-year narrowed to 17 bps. On the last day of the month, the Fed lowered rates by 25 bps, acknowledging that their previous moves may have been too aggressive.  The Russell 1000 Growth index expanded 2.3% and the Russell 2000 Growth index grew .9% in the month, both continuing to beat their respective Value indexes by about 1% each.

The market has been volatile since the start of the year, which we think is, in part, due to an underlying shift in the economy. Shifts like this can lead to significant change. There have been many Golden Ages throughout history, but one of the most notable took place in Spain after Christopher Columbus returned from the New World. In his book Secrets of Sand Hill Road, Scott Kupor describes Queen Isabella of Spain as one of the first venture capitalists. She provided capital in the form of money, ships, supplies, and a crew to Columbus to do something very risky that most would not have attempted. In return, she wanted all trade from the New World to go through Seville, Spain as well as a cut of the profits. The Golden Era that followed lasted for more than a hundred years, only ending after the river to Seville began to silt up and could no longer accommodate ocean vessels.

Although there are huge differences between this first venture capitalist and today’s VC community, there are certainly some similarities. Several hundred years ago, Europeans used technology to change the course of history. Today, new companies are using innovative technologies and creativity to devise better customer solutions. These solutions attract new customers, who both happily abandon their previous solution and tell all of their friends about the better solution. Like the spice traders failed efforts to hold onto their trade routes, the product-centric businesses of the industrial revolution are struggling to hold onto their customers.

I experienced this customer struggle first hand coming back from Seville a few weeks ago. Traveling on a major airline back to the US, the final leg of the trip was cancelled due to poor weather. Originally scheduled to arrive in New York by 6 pm Thursday, the airline rescheduled me to arrive at 10 pm the following day. Only three hours by car from home, I first inquired at a number of rental car firms about renting a car. Seeing the opportunity to capitalize on the weather, the rate doubled from $200 to $400 while I was waiting for confirmation. Disappointed, I was able to find an Uber driver happy to drive me in stormy weather the three hours home for $300. This is a clear example of the superior customer-centric solution taking business away from the inferior product-centric model that seeks to maximize profit at the expense of the customer. Guess who I am calling first the next time I am in a similar situation?

As we spend more time cultivating our growth strategies, we have begun to specifically seek out customer-centric businesses. It is no surprise that some of the best emerging business missions are centered around helping customers succeed. Shopify (SHOP) reported their results on the first of August, and spent a significant amount of time discussing how they are developing tools with the sole purpose of making their customers more successful. Don’t you wish all companies ran their operations with a similar mindset? It helps explain the wild success they and other customer- focused businesses are having.

All the Best to You,

AKW

An Increasingly Customer-Centric World

To Our Investors and Friends,

The S&P 500 finished the second quarter up 3.8%, ending close to an all-time high as the trend towards global easing continued. Oil prices (WTI) fell 2.8% over the same time frame to approximately $58.50, as signs of a global slowdown increased in the face of trade tensions. The 10-year Treasury Bond continued to slide in the quarter to 2.01%, a 41 bp drop from the end of last quarter. The spread between the 2- and 10-year widened to 26 bps, and the short end of the yield curve has become even more severely inverted.  Throughout the quarter, the stock market lurched in an 8% range as trade fears and signs of an economic slowdown were offset by anticipation of rate cuts and a continuation of easy monetary policies.  The Russell 1000 Growth index expanded 4.6% and the Russell 2000 Growth index grew 2.8% in the quarter, both continuing to beat their respective Value indexes by about 1% each.

We believe a next generation of businesses is emerging that is making great use of the tools provided by the Fourth Industrial Revolution, such as Artificial Intelligence, the Internet of Things, and Next Generation Data Analytics, driven by the combination of expansive data sets and low-cost computational processing. These leading companies have new business models that are customer centric, instead of the product-centric business models of the previous industrial revolutions. Subscription-based models are often success-based revenue models – the value of the customer relationship grows as the customer benefits from the subscription-based technology. This close relationship between a business and its customer refocuses research and development efforts to be driven by customer feedback and need, instead of speculation. In the end, decision making is data driven and vastly more efficient than the guess work of the past.

We think that the more the economy is driven by customer-centric businesses, the less cyclical and capital-intensive the economy becomes. Stability and predictability replace the speculative behavior of the past and should ultimately lead to stronger businesses that the market values more. When a business moves from a single transaction with the customer to an ongoing relationship, the investor’s focus should move from unit economics to annual recurring revenue and customer relationship longevity. Leading businesses that are helping their customers succeed start the year with 90-95% of the previous year’s revenue and build from there, driving both high and predictable revenue growth rates.

Our previous studies have suggested that new businesses, those less than 25 years since their founding, are much more customer centric than ones that have existed for much longer. Our portfolio has an average age of about 22 to 23 years, but primarily consists of businesses that are between 10-20 years old. We will continue to focus on this part of the market and expect that high and predictable revenue growth will lead to larger businesses and stocks over time.

Kingsland Growth Advisor’s lead strategy, the Long-Term Growth strategy, continues to build on a successful start. The strategy seeks to identify and own the next generation blue chip companies, those businesses that have the ability to grow 500-1000% over the next ten years.  The stock selection process we employ to successfully identify such companies is the result of 25 years of growth investing in the best opportunities available to the public markets. The strategy is up 41.4% YTD and compares favorably to the Russell 2000 Small Cap Growth index, which expanded 20.4% over the same time frame. Over the last year, the strategy is up 26.0% vs a decline of 40 bps for the Russell 2000 Growth Index. This strong beginning suggests to us that our focus on customer-centric business models may be a good focus. If our observations on the changing economy prove accurate, we would expect we can continue to deliver on our goal of meaningful capital appreciation. We welcome you to contact us to learn more about how we search for great growth companies that will emerge from the Fourth Industrial Revolution.

All the Best to You,

AKW

Empowered Employees Lift Stock Prices

To Our Investors and Friends,

The S&P 500 finished the month of May down 6.6%, paring back its gain for the year to 9.8%. Oil prices (WTI) fell 16.3% to just over $53 a barrel, driven by more signs of a global slowdown. The 10-year Treasury Bond dropped 38 basis points in the month and is now down 55 basis points to 2.13% since the beginning of the year. The spread between the 2- and 10-year remained at 19 bps, but the short end of the yield curve has become more severely inverted.  This severe reaction across markets is directly related to escalating trade tensions between the US and China. Last week, the Trump Administration increased market concerns by threatening major tariffs on Mexican imports. This economic action on our largest trading partner designed to force Mexico to implement stronger border security may drive our industrial economy into recession. The market is beginning to price this in. The Russell 2000 Value index performed the worst, down 8.2% for the month. The other major indexes faired poorly as well – the Russell 2000 Growth fell 7.4%, the Russell 1000 Value dropped 6.4%, and the Russell 1000 Growth declined 6.3%.

We know that investors have entered a period of heightened anxiety, but what happens if this spills over to Corporate America? Over the last 30,000 years, humans have dramatically advanced technology across all facets of life. Despite all that innovation, at the heart of it, our DNA and our primal instincts have not evolved. As a result, we are subject to primal fears that often leads to both a resistance to change and poor decision making. We decided to see if empowered employees – those that have a sense of purpose instilled by their leaders - are having a positive impact on their company’s stock performance. We compared the Glassdoor ratings that employees give their employers on all S&P 500 companies, and then determined if there was a correlation between ratings and stock performance. Intuitive Surgical received the highest rating of all companies, where 96% of employees recommend the company to their friends, and the average employee gave the company a rating of 4.6 out of 5 (92 out of 100). The lowest rated companies were collectively the railroads, where only 28% of employees recommended the companies to their friends, and the average employee gave their companies a ranking of 2.4 out of 5 (48 out of 100).

As can be seen in the Chart below, only those companies most highly ranked by their employees experienced a noticeable impact on their stock prices over the last five years. This shouldn’t be surprising because according to the September 2017 issue of Inc. magazine, only 32% of employees are engaged. Wikipedia defines an “engaged employee” as one who is enthusiastic about his or her work, and acts in a way that benefits the organization’s business. A disengaged employee often is one that does the minimum amount of work for his or her company, and sometimes seeks to damage the business. We believe these behaviors intensify during periods of uncertainty. We believe in the power of engaged employees, and think that they will help their companies perform better as businesses, and as stocks, over the long term.

Source: Glassdoor - Company rating number is the best of 5 and was adjusted to fit the chart.

Kingsland Growth Advisor’s lead strategy, the Long-Term Growth strategy, just completed its first full year since inception. The strategy seeks to identify and own the next generation blue chip companies, those businesses that have the ability to grow 500-1000% over the next ten years.  The stock selection process we employ to successfully identify such companies is the result of 25 years of growth investing in the best opportunities available to the public markets. It has been a fantastic start. The strategy is up 17.7% in this tumultuous year, and compares favorably to the Russell 2000 Small Cap Growth index, which declined 6.9% over the same time frame. In a world in which both luck and skill will always play a part, we believe this start should provide some confidence that stock-picking skill is a big factor in this strategy. We welcome you to contact us to learn more about how we search for great growth companies that will emerge from the Fourth Industrial Revolution.

All the Best to You,

AKW

We Are Seeking Great Investors, Not Cost Cutters

To Our Investors and Friends,

The S&P 500 finished the month of April up 3.9%, reaching an all-time new high for the market, slightly above the previous high achieved last September. Oil prices (WTI) increased 7.7% to just under $64 a barrel, but remains far below the old September high of almost $77 a barrel. The 10-year Treasury Bond advanced early in the month and then retraced a majority of the gains, finishing the month at 2.48%, a 9-basis point advance. The spread between the 2- and 10-year widened 5 bps to 19 bps and continues to be modestly inverted at the short end of the curve.  This has been an issue for the market all year, but does not appear to be indicative of a recession any time soon. The new economy, represented by the Russell 1000 Growth and Russell 2000 Growth indexes, continued to perform well, although small cap is now beginning to lag its larger peers. For the month, the Russell 1000 Growth advanced 4.5%, and the Russell 2000 Growth increased a more modest 3.1%. Both indexes remain about 5% ahead of the comparable value indexes, and are also up about 21% YTD.

Over the last decade, the largest businesses in the United States have experienced a great divergence in their fortunes foretold by decisions in one key area…future investments.  We believe the most important decisions leadership can make is where to invest in its people and capabilities. These decisions take courage, intelligence, and an open mind to future possibilities. Cost-cutting decisions, on the other hand, are inherently short term in nature, and therefore require far less strategic thought. We believe Corporate America is beginning to feel the effects of years of serial cost cutting. Notable examples are General Electric and The Kraft Heinz Company – and more dominoes will fall as cost-cutting induced devastation is revealed in the coming years. Ten years ago, most companies were faced with a choice: invest in the future, or cut costs to preserve some semblance of the past. Fast forward to today, and those companies that invested during the downturn are a lot larger with much greater growth prospects, while the cost cutters have all but destroyed their cultures and with that, their futures. It is quite difficult to harness the energy of a great idea and make it a great business. It is impossible to re-energize a culture that has been subject to serial cost cutting, leaving it lifeless and purposeless. What do we do when faced with a potential investment in a serial cost-cutter? Run away!

Out with the Old and In with the New!

Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) have always been the lifeblood of Capitalism, and with them comes the hope of a better future. Unlike most previous periods, this year will be defined by the number of Venture Capital unicorns that go public -- those companies that have at least a billion-dollar market value before their IPO. Estimates suggest that over 100 “unicorns” are planning to raise more than $100 billion in proceeds for their IPOs in 2019, a number that exceeds the amount raised during the technology bubble years of 1999 and 2000. We believe that the number and quality of companies going public this year can help lift the economy and support further gains in the market. So far, it has been a bit of a mixed bag in terms of performance of IPOs. Lyft (LYFT) quickly sold off from its $72 IPO price, and is building a base around $60. Pinterest (PINS) was priced at $19 a share, and is up more than 60% in two weeks. Zoom Video Communication (ZM) priced at $36, and is now up more than 100% in the same two-week period. We did not buy any of these IPOs, as they all exceeded our initial market cap thresholds, but we are investigating them all. Over the next several years and months, the market will determine what these businesses are really worth, and over the next decade, we will find out if the market was right. Given the tremendous early volatility in these new issues, we will seek to take our time in first identifying the next generation blue chip companies, and then owning them.

All the Best to You,

AKW

The S&P 500 Index Fund is Being Given Away for Free for a Reason

To Our Investors and Friends,

Last May, we launched our Long Term Growth Strategy. Over that time frame, the strategy has owned between 35 and 38 names that we believe are next generation blue chip companies -- those businesses we think can advance 500-1000% or more in a 10+ year time frame. We won’t be right on all of them, but we think the strategy itself is poised to deliver on its intended purpose:  to grow capital by several hundred percent over an appropriate long-term horizon. Since inception, our Long Term Growth Strategy has advanced 18.6%, which compares favorably to all the major indexes.  During the same time frame, the major indexes advanced between +7.6% (R1000G) and -6.3% (R2000V). The strategy ended its first quarter of the year up 30.9%, and we are excited to see where we go from here.

The S&P 500 finished its first full quarter of 2019 up 13.1%, the best start to the year we have seen in 25 years in the industry. But even so, the index remains 3.3% below the highs achieved last September. For the quarter, oil prices (WTI) rebounded 31% to just over $59 a barrel. The 10-year Treasury Bond fell 28 basis points to 2.4%. The spread between the 2- and 10-year narrowed 4 bps to 14 bps and remains modestly inverted at the short end of the curve.  Although a concern for the market, we do not think that it indicates a recession is near. The new economy, represented by the Russell 1000 Growth and Russell 2000 Growth indexes, jumped out of the gate up 16.1% and 17.1% for the quarter, respectively. Both continue to advance faster than the Russell 1000 and 2000 Value indexes. Why is that? Technology dominates growth, and the S&P Technology components grew 19.8%, while Financials dominates value, and the S&P Financial components increased at a less robust 8.5% rate.

We believe the economy is undergoing tremendous change as the Fourth Industrial Revolution begins to take shape. Massive computing power and fantastic amounts of data are now available to all, allowing individuals to make vastly better decisions and for creative thinkers to give life to their ideas faster and cheaper than has ever been possible before.

We believe there is a reason why many passive firms are offering index funds for almost zero cost. The index is a great representation of what the economy was, but a poor one of what it is becoming. Those owning S&P 500 index funds in an attempt to gain exposure to the best America has to offer are being left behind. We examined the largest 250 stocks in the S&P 500, representing 87% of the total index weight. We compared age of business to cumulative revenue growth and cumulative stock appreciation over the last 5 years. As can be seen in the chart below, companies 25 years or younger are growing dramatically faster than older members of the index, yet their stocks are not expanding as fast as the underlying revenue. Much older companies with slower growing businesses are experiencing much greater stock appreciation relative to the actual growth the companies are experiencing. This runs counter to popular opinion that growth companies are overvalued vs mature businesses. In fact, the opposite may be the case.

We think this is supportive of our strategy to search out the next generation blue chips. The fastest growing businesses are early in their development, and have the opportunity to expand into much larger entities. Our 37-stock portfolio has an average age of 23 years since their founding, and the vast majority are between 10 and 20 years old. These businesses are in their prime growth years. We will continue to make sure they remain on the right path, making adjustments to the portfolio as needed. Many things can go right and wrong in the young life of these businesses. Every quarter is a report card on the development of these businesses. We will remain vigilant on making sure only those businesses that are executing continue to earn their position in the portfolio.

All the Best to You,

AKW

A Continuation of the Golden Era of Growth!

To Our Investors and Friends,

February saw a continuation of the robust performance that the market experienced in January.  The S&P 500 finished up just shy of 3.0% for the month and is now up a little more than 11.0% year to date. For the month, oil prices (WTI) rebounded 6.4% to just over $57 a barrel. The 10-year Treasury Bond advanced eight basis points to 2.71%. The spread between the 2- and 10-year widened 3 bps to 21 bps and remains modestly inverted at the short end of the curve.  The new economy, represented by the Russell 1000 Growth and Russell 2000 Growth indexes, recovered 3.6% and 6.5% for the month, respectively. Both continue to advance faster than the Russell 1000 and 2000 Value indexes.

The market’s advance YTD continues to be driven by growth companies, as modest inflation favors unit growers (emerging businesses) over those companies dependent on price increases (mature businesses). The millennials favor these emerging businesses and are making decisions that are benefiting the “new” over the brick and mortar dependent competitors. Advances in technology are disrupting more capital-intensive businesses across industries. Often, the disrupter offers a solution that is an order of magnitude better (measured in price, easy of use, or speed) than what it is replacing.  As suggested by the Life Cycle of Companies chart below, I believe millennials are accelerating the growth of the next generation blue chips, causing the previous generational blue chips to deteriorate faster. It is good to be a growth investor!

Life Cycle of Companies

On the evening of the last day of February, Tesla (TSLA) announced that it will rollout the $35,000 Model 3. This is the first step in EVs taking over the auto market, but instead of a surge in the stock, Tesla was sold off. Why? The company also announced there would be some near-term pain in order to make this a reality. It reminds me of IPG Photonics (IPGP), the leader in fiber lasers, that made a similar move ten years ago. Like Tesla, IPG Photonics needed to lower the price of their more efficient laser to get the CO2 laser users to start adopting the new technology. Fast forward a decade: IPG Photonics shares have advanced by over 1,000% in a resounding display of appreciation for their growth strategy. Humans are predictable. They are going to adopt the faster, cheaper, and easier to use technology that Tesla has introduced. I am going to buckle up and enjoy the ride. I know there are a few people who are paying attention…oil sold off as well.

It is worth mentioning that the KGA Long Term Growth strategy is off to a very strong start at the beginning of the year. While working in the mutual fund world, I noticed that our award winning performance was driven by just a handful of stocks. In fact, approximately 5% of the names generated 50% of the returns. In developing this strategy, I intentionally overweighed the transformative companies, those that I believe have the ability to advance 500% or more in the next few years, so that they represent the vast majority of the portfolio. So far, that is proving to set Kingsland Growth Advisors on the right path. I welcome the chance to guide you on this journey into the future.

All the Best to You,

AKW

A Rapid Recovery to Start the Year

To Our Investors and Friends,

Following a -9.2% return for the month of December (the worst December since 1931), in January the S&P 500 posted one of the best starts to the New Year, up 7.9%. Oil prices (WTI) rebounded 18.5% to just under $54 a barrel. The 10-year Treasury Bond dropped five basis points to 2.63%. The spread between the 2- and 10-year remained at 18 basis points and is still inversed at the short end of the curve.  The new economy, represented by the Russell 1000 Growth and Russell 2000 Growth indexes, rebounded 9.0% and 11.6% for the month, respectively. Both are starting the year off slightly ahead of the Russell 1000 and 2000 Value indexes.

January’s gains are being fueled by positive resolutions to a number of market concerns. The most important one is fears of rising interest rates, which were calmed by the Fed’s comments to the market this week. Recession concerns are also dissipating as companies report earnings and provide confidence that the economy may be less robust than in recent months but shows no signs of recession. The market still needs the China Trade War to be settled and the Mueller probe to conclude to tamp down the last elements of uncertainty. We think both of these matters are likely to be resolved by the end of the quarter and should set the stage for double digit returns from here for the next 11 months of 2019. The S&P 500 needs to move up another 8.4% to make an all time new high, which we believe we will likely see by year end.

We are in search of the next generation blue chip companies, those companies that can grow several hundred percent in size over time. This is a rare breed for sure, but we have been searching for such companies over the last 25 years and have more than Malcolm Gladwell’s suggested 10,000 hours to develop such an expertise. We believe there are an increasing number of companies that meet our criteria, which are all benefiting from the current golden era of growth environment. This environment has been created by the culmination of a technology savvy generation of Millennials that are increasingly making investment decisions, the rapid dissemination of new ideas enabled by the internet, and global markets that allow every company to go after much bigger opportunities. As we discovered over the last two months, volatility is ever present with this group, but it should enable us to find good buy points in even the most sought-after growth companies.  

Over the last decade, the first Golden Era of Growth beneficiaries, FAANG, drove the performance of the market.  Over this time frame, Facebook stock (FB) advanced approximately 460% (after its challenged 2012 IPO), Apple stock (AAPL) gained approximately 1,190%, Amazon stock (AMZN) increased approximately 2,820%, Netflix stock (NFLX) grew approximately 6,470%, and Alphabet (formerly Google) stock (GOOGL) expanded approximately 570%. This compares to the Russell 1000’s 370% gain and the S&P 500’s 227% advance over the last decade. We think the market is going much higher over the next decade, and that it will be led by the next generation blue chips. We are passionate about finding these next generation growth beneficiaries and believe our long term philosophy will help us capitalize on them. We are very excited about the future, and invite you join us on this journey.

All the Best to You,

AKW